Comment... The
results don't pass the smell test In
my opinion the United Nations' Climate Change 2007 report failed its mission.
One doesn't need to be a scientist to spot the problems with its conclusion that
greenhouse gases drive global warming. ...with carbon dioxide (CO2)
the worst offender. Smell
Test #1: The IPCC loaded the dice. Whereas
the report should have considered all possible global warming culprits then narrow
the field, the the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) instead removed
everything from consideration except greenhouse gases. Here's an example from
the report (p. 95), "The topics have been chosen...for understanding the
risks of human-induced climate change." According to the first sentence
in Wikipedia,
"The IPCC is ... tasked to evaluate ... climate change caused by human activity." Leading
climate scientists say that in order to explain global warming we need to also
consider cosmic rays, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the sun's decreasing magnetic
field, the earth's decreasing magnetic field, sun spots and contrails. Yet, nowhere
in the IPCC report is there meaningful discussion of these possible global warming
drivers. Climate Change 2007 is like an election in the USSR – one candidate
from which to choose. While
there appears to be a great deal of good science in Climate Change 2007,
it's conclusions are unsupported. Smell
Test #2: The earth's had hundreds of instances of global warming. ...all
driven by natural forces. It strains credulity to think the present warming is
the first not driven by natural forces. Smell
Test #3:
Crystal balls do not exist. Why should we believe climate scientists can predict
many years into the future? There
own words don't inspire confidence. Remember, it was only a couple years ago
that ALL economic models underestimated the risk to our economy of mortgage backed
securities. Warren Buffet recently warned, "Beware of geeks bearing formulas."
Smell
Test #4: The United Nation's developed the Kyoto Protocol. They have
a vested and continuing interest in
NOT finding that it valueless. A significant portion of their funding depends
upon demonizing CO2.
Smell
Test #5: What about water vapor? The IPCC, almost in passing, states
that water vapor is more of a problem greenhouse gas than CO2
by a wide margin. Climate scientists know water vapor plays a big role in cloud
formation and they know clouds play a big role in determining the earth's climate.
Yet, the IPCC doesn't offer meaningful discussion of water vapor's role in global
warming. Smell
Test #6: The United Nations is a political organization, where intrigue,
power grabbing and backroom deals are the rule of the day. Why should we believe
their science? Smell
Test #7: Carbon
dioxide is a trace gas. It comprises less than four one-hundreths of one percent
of our atmosphere. Is seems unlikely this is driving global warming. Smell
Test #8: The Summary for Policymakers asserted that CO2 drives global
warming. It was released on February 2, 2007. But the IPCC waited over a month
to publish the body of the report. Why? Could it be because the IPCC wanted to
make a splash with their conclusions before anyone could call them on their evidence. .
. . Global
warming is an extremely complex and important issue. I propose that the United
States start from scratch, with our best scientists and thinkers, and determine
for ourselves: - Is
global warming real?
- If
so, how does it impact the United States?
- Is
it caused, or contributed to, by greenhouse gases?
The
stakes are huge. If we respond to global warming incorrectly, our children and
grandchildren will likely lead lives of increasing hardship and desperation. .
. . The
IPCC Climate Change 2007 report is over a thousand pages in length and
makes for difficult reading. It's not that lay-people like you and I cannot understand
complex scientific reasoning, it's that in my opinion the report is 'jargoned
up' and designed to shut the door to further discussion. It's written in a 'we
are smarter than you' style that does not entertain evidence contrary to its conclusions. For
your reading pleasure/displeasure and desire to get at the truth, you can read
the entire Climate Change 2007 report using the links at the top right
column of this page. —
Robert Moen, Founder rmoen@energyplanUSA.com |